LME aluminium crosses US$2,100/t mark, but may drop after facing a resistance

LME aluminium is on a solid upward trend. Drawing support from strong market fundamentals, the light metal climbed steadily to close at US$2,104.50 per tonne, up 11.5 per cent from US$1,887 per tonne at the beginning of this month.

Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium may end its bounce from August 18’s low of US$2,057.50 per tonne around the current resistance level of US$2,103 and then again drop elow US$2,100 per tonne.   

According to Shanghai Metals Market forecast, LME aluminium will range at US$2,050-2,080 per tonne on Monday, August 21 after testing support at the 5-day moving average.

As on August 18, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,104 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,104.50 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,088.50 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,089 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,128 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,133 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock stands at 1287075 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1055625 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 231450 tonnes.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has risen from US$2,393 per tonne on Friday, August 19 to US$2,420 per tonne on Monday, August 21.

At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active aluminium future contract SHFE 1710 opened at RMB 16,170 per tonne on Friday, and then rose to RMB 16,440 per tonne before ending at RMB 16,350 per tonne. SMM predicts that SHFE 1710 aluminium will range at RMB 16,100-16,350 per tonne on Monday, August 21.

Spot aluminium in east China market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 220-180 per tonne over SHFE 1709 aluminium on Monday.

The market focus will be on OPEC and non-OPEC meeting on Monday, which otherwise, has a light economic data calendar, SMM said.