LME aluminium inches up but likely to face downward correction

LME aluminium edged higher boosted by the gain in crude oil prices. The light metal, which is still trading below US$1,900 per tonne, closed higher at US$1,896.50 per tonne on Tuesday, July 25, up from its earlier close of US$1,890 per tonne. However, the gain is unlikely to sustain over the long term, as LME aluminium will face a downward correction, observes Shanghai Metals Market.

The research and media firm predicts that LME aluminium will move higher at US$1,930-1,950 per tonne on Wednesday, July 26.

As on July 25, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$1,889.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$1,890 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$1,917 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$1,917.50 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$1,958 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$1,963 per tonne.

LME aluminium premiums remain unchanged across most of the regions globally. As on July 25, LME aluminium premium for the US stands at US$165, down from US$170 as of July 21; LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium stands at US$80, LME Aluminium East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15, and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium is US$15 (per tonne).  

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SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has dropped from US$2,128 per tonne on Tuesday, July 25, to US$2,114 per tonne on Wednesday, July 26.

At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active aluminium future contract SHFE 1709 aluminium opened at RMB 14,465 per tonne on Tuesday, July 25, and then rose to RMB 14,590 per tonne on news of rising market interest rates. Later, the contract fell marginally to end at RMB 14,570 per tonne. SMM predicts that SHFE 1709 aluminium will rise further to RMB 14,530-14,680 per tonne on Wednesday, July 26.

Spot aluminium in east China market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 150-110 per tonne over SHFE 1708 aluminium on Wednesday.

The market focus will be on UK’s GDP update for Q2 of the current financial year, seasonally adjusted new home sales in the US, US manufacturing PMI, and crude oil prices on Wednesday, SMM said.