The YoY growth in China aluminium output expected to slow down in July

Despite the entire buzz around China’s so called capacity cut in the alumina aluminium sector, China’s aluminium output has been growing consistently since the beginning of 2017. As reported by Shanghai Metal Market, aluminium output in China was 3.09 million tonnes in June, up 20.2% YoY, with a daily output of about 103,000 tonnes. The YTD output through June amounted to 18.296 million tonnes, up 21.7% YoY.

In June 2017, China’s operational aluminium capacities stood at 37.61 million tonnes, up 6.33 million tonnes YoY. SMM predicts China’s aluminum output to reach 3.19 million tonnes in July registering an increase month-on-month, but the growth is estimated to slow down to 19.3% on a year on year comparison.

As for aluminium capacity cuts in China are concerned, Shandong, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia had not released the list of illegal aluminium capacities till date. Weiqiao Group, Xinjiang East Hope and Xinjiang Jiarun have started production cuts, totally involving about 400,000 tonnes as updated on July 4.

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Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials started production at its 780,000-tonne aluminium facility in June, and as of July 3, approximately 300,000 tonnes of total capacities were in operation. The rest of the operations were expected to come online in September 2017. However, if some of the producers have started production cuts, some others have started new capacity or restarted closed capcity. While Weiqiao Group, Xinjiang East Hope and Xinjiang Jiarun have cut capacity, Gansu Dongxing Aluminium, Qujing Aluminum Industry and Bomei Aostar restarted closed operations, offsetting that.