LME aluminium to fluctuate at lows amid weak fundamentals, SHFE aluminium edges up

LME aluminium has been largely range bound over the last seven days. The light metal which showed a mild uptrend on Thursday (June 22), last week, settled at US$1,868 per tonne after night trading on Friday, June 23. Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) observes that LME aluminium will keep swinging widely at the lows. The aluminium prices will range between US$1,862-1,877 per tonne on Monday, June 26.

As on June 23, LME official cash buyer aluminium price stands at US$1,867 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price is US$1,868 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,875 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,875 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,908 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1,913 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 1429525 tonnes, total Live Warrant is 1067050 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 362475 tonnes.

LME aluminium premiums, as on June 22, remain unchanged across major regions. LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium stands at US$110, LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15, and LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is at US$85, and LME Aluminium US Premium is at US$195 (per tonne).

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The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) stands at US$2,010 per tonne on Monday, June 26, up 0.7 per cent from the benchmark price of US$1,996 per tonne on June 23.

At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active aluminium future contract SHFE 1708 aluminium opened at RMB 13,840 per tonne on Friday, June 23 and then edged higher following other base metals to settle at RMB 13,935 per tonne. SMM predicts that SHFE 1708 aluminium will move at RMB 13,780-13,920 per tonne on Monday, June 26.  

Spot aluminium in east China market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 140-100 per tonne over SHFE 1707 aluminium contract on Monday.

China Aluminum International Trading Co. (Chalco Trading) hiked aluminium prices it offered in major markets today. The revised prices are as follows:

Unit: RMB per tonne

The market focus will be on US May durable goods orders, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), Dallas Fed Business Activity Index and Germany IFO Business Climate Index, Business Situation Index and expectation index on Monday, SMM said.