LME aluminium dips slightly after testing month’s highest; SHFE 1707 expected to rise after holidays

After touching the highest for the month at US$1,954 per tonne on Thursday May 25, LME aluminium has plunged slightly low to close at US$1,950 per tonne on Friday, May 26. LME aluminium may rise during the Dragon Boat festival holiday, which will allow SHFE 1707 aluminium to rise as well after the holiday.  According to Reuter analysis, LME aluminium continues to face a resistance at $1,962 per tonne, a break above which could lead to a gain to $1,969.

As on May 26, LME official cash buyer price of aluminium stands at US$1,949 per tonne, cash seller & settlement price is US$1,950 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,952.50 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,953.50 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,975 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1,980 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 1496450 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 992175 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 504275 tonnes.

LME aluminium premiums, as on May 25, remain unchanged across major regions. LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium stands at US$110, LME Aluminium US Premium is US$215, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is US$95, and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15 (per tonne).

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) stands at US$2,033 per tonne on Friday, May 26, up 0.29 per cent from the benchmark aluminium price of US$2,010 per tonne on Thursday, May 25.

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As reported by SMM, SHFE 1707 aluminium dipped to RMB 14,040/mt after opening at RMB 14,080/mt on Friday. But, the most active contract then rebounded to RMB 14,110/mt, ending at RMB 14,085/mt. Trading volumes decreased to 123,000 lots to 152,000 lots, and positions decreased 7,538 lots to 212,262 lots.

According to an SMM report, this week, there will be only three trading days on the SHFE for the 2017 Chinese Dragon Boat Festival from May 28-30. Tight month-end liquidity will impede the sustainability of price gain, and base metals are expected to stage range-bound trading.