LME aluminium may find support at US$1931; SHFE aluminium moves in a tight range

LME aluminium prices are fluctuating in a very narrow range. The light metal contract which closed at US$1,932.50 per tonne on Friday, April 21, dropped 0.23 per cent to end at US$1,928 per tonne on the first trading day of the week. Reuters' analysis has it that LME aluminium may break a resistance at US$1,931 per tonne to inch slightly up to the next resistance at US$1,964, to stage a bounce from the April 18 low of US$1,892. The metal may peak around US$1,964 before starting to drop, the analysis shows.

According to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) forecast, LME aluminium should log higher at US$1,935-1,965 per tonne on Tuesday, April 25, with strong support at the 5-day and 20-day moving averages.

As on April 24, LME official cash buyer price of aluminium stands at US$1,927.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement price is US$1,98 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,933 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,933.50 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,968 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1973 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 1678250 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1092425 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 585825 tonnes.

LME aluminium premiums, as on April 21, remain unchanged across major regions. LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium stands at US$110, LME Aluminium US Premium is US$215, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is US$95, and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15 (per tonne).

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The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) on April 25 stands at US$2,051 per tonne, up 0.14 per cent from Monday's price of US$2,048 per tonne.

Aluminium futures contract SHFE 1706 aluminium opened at RMB 14,340 per tonne at Shanghai Futures Exchange, on Monday, April 24, and then jumped to RMB 14,375 per tonne. Later, the contract came down sharply below the 10-day moving average to end at RMB 14,230 per tonne. SMM says SHFE 1706 aluminium will trade in tight range due to a cautious market. It will challenge resistance at moving averages and move at RMB 14,150-14,450 per tonne on Tuesday, april 25.

Spot aluminium in China's domestic market is projected to trade at discounts of RMB 180-140 per tonne over SHFE 1705 aluminium on Tuesday.

China Aluminum International Trading Co. (Chalco Trading) did not make any further change to the prices it offered in major markets after the last across-the-board cuts. The prices now are as follows:

Unit: yuan/tonne

The key macroeconomic factors for the day will be US February home prices, seasonally adjusted new home sales in March and Conference Board’s April CCI for the US, SMM updates.