Primary Aluminium News - Market

LME aluminium poised to regain strength and 'possibly' outshine SHFE aluminium

AL Circle

LME aluminium prices remained fairly unchanged over the weekend. The lightmetal contract closed the week at US$1,932.50 per tonne on Friday, April 21, marginally down by 0.02 per cent from its previous close of US$1,933 per tonne. The US dollar index, which fell on Friday supporting LME aluminium prices ahead of French elections, has edged slightly higher amid speculations in the non-commercial futures market. The uptrend is likley to weigh down upon the base metals, but the effect would be limited.

According to Reuters' analysis, LME aluminium may test a support at U$1,931 per tonne, as suggested by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis. Shanghai Metals Market foresees, LME aluminium will rebound to US$1,926-1,966 per tonne on Monday, April 24.

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As on April 21, LME official cash buyer price of aluminium stands at US$1,932 per tonne, cash seller & settlement price is US$1,932.50 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,939 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,939.50 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,973 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1978 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 1687875 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1092925 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 594950 tonnes.

LME aluminium premiums, as on April 19, remain same across major regions. LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium stands at US$110, LME Aluminium US Premium is US$215, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is US$95, and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15 (per tonne).

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The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) on April 24 stands at US$2,048 per tonne, down 0.19 per cent from Friday's price of US$2,052 per tonne.

Aluminium futures contracts traded on Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) remained somewhat subdued last week. Supply-side reforms resulting from illegal capacity closures in Xinjiang are likely to support aluminium prices in the domestic market but the impact will be limited over the short term.  Analysts observe that steadily falling LME aluminium stocks will help LME aluminium outperform Shanghai aluminium prices in the foreseeable future. SHFE 1706 aluminium is likely to move at RMB 14,110-14,450 per tonne on Monday, April 24, SMM says.

Spot aluminium in China's domestic market is projected to trade at discounts of RMB 180-140 per tonne over SHFE 1705 aluminium on Monday.    

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