LME aluminium to fluctuate at lows, SHFE aluminium soars to 4-year high

The London Metal Exchange market will remain closed on Monday, April 17, for the Easter Holidays. LME aluminium that ended the week last Friday, April 14, on a volatile note is expected to keep diverging this week.

As on April 13, LME official cash buyer price of aluminium stands at US$1,889.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement price is US$1,890 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,902 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,902.50 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,943 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1948 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 1759850 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1099250 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 660600 tonnes.

LME aluminium premiums remain unchanged at their previous levels across major global markets. As on April 12, LME Aluminium US Premium stands at US$215, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium stands at US$95, LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium is US$105 and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium is US$15 (per tonne). 

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has staged a reversal from its last week lows. It is US$2,095 per tonne on Monday, April 17, up 3.86 per cent from Friday's price of US$2017 per tonne.

Aluminium futures contract traded on Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) experienced an overnight surge during early morning trading on Monday, April 17. As per Shanghai Metals Market's (SMM) 2.22 am update, SHFE 1706 aluminium shot up to RMB 14,150+ per tonne on rampant market speculation triggered by news on three local companies halting construction of capacity after government found them to be illegal. Trading was also affected by the rumour that the National Development & Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a notice for cleaning up illegal projects in the domestic aluminium industry. This fuelled speculations that China would tighten control over aluminium supply.

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SHFE 3-month contract is estimated to move in the range of US$14,00-14,500 per tonne and spot aluminium in China's domestic market is projected to trade at discounts of RMB 180-120 per tonne on Monday, April 17.

The focus of the market will be on China’s GDP, consumption, investment and industrial added value in Q1 2017 on Monday, SMM says.