LME aluminium to see range-bound trading

The US Fed Chairwoman’s speech at the meeting in Jackson Hall will come under the spotlight today. Crude oil prices will fluctuate widely on positive and negative news. LME aluminium will move between USD 1,635-1,655/mt.

SHFE 1610 aluminium will move at RMB 12,250-12,430/mt.

In east China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 130-170/mt are expected over SHFE 1609 aluminium contract.

Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices

Market will eye US Fed Chairwoman’s speech, US Q2 GDP and August University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index today.

Preliminary annualized quarterly rate of US Q2 GDP was 1.2 per cent, better than previous figure, but was much worse than expected. Preliminary annualized quarterly rate of US PCE was 4.2 per cent in Q2, lower than forecast, but up from previous figure. Preliminary annualized quarterly rate of US core PCE was 1.7 per cent in Q2, in line with forecast, but down from previous figure. The revised data for US Q2 GDP and PCE are expected to change little.  

US IBD consumer confidence index was better than expected and July’s figure in August. Preliminary data of University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index for August, though lower than expected, was better than July’s final figure. When combined with optimism over US manufacturing and housing markets, final figure of August University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index is expected to improve.    

US Fed Chairwoman will make a speech at the annual gathering of central banks in Jackson Hall today, which will give clues as to future policy path. If her speech is not as hawkish as expected, base metals will see big volatility.