Where is peak for China aluminium inventory in H1 2016?
The answer is yes, says SMM aluminium analyst Liu Xiaolei. In fact, the turning point has already emerged, with stocks down to 913,000 tonnes as of March 17, and stocks have been falling ever since.
Higher costs from rising alumina and coal prices will deter massive capacity restarts. And tight bank lending will also curtail release of new capacity, Liu explained.
In conclusion, SMM sees capacity restarts and new capacity release not enough to fill in supply gap from previous production cuts.
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