
The US dollar weakened this week after progress in Brexit negotiations between the European Union and Britain and dipped to the lowest since March 4, at 96.37 on March 14, after new inflation data increased expectations that US interest rates will not be raised anytime soon. Base metals traded mixed over the week. Both LME and SHFE aluminium traded bullish over the week and registered a slight drop on Friday.
LME aluminium started the week on an upward trend with US$ 1830 per tonne and touched its highest on March 14 at US$ 1873.5 per tonne. The contract jumped above all moving averages after Norway’s Norsk Hydro said that production at its Neuss plant in Germany would likely to fall due to an accident. A lower US dollar also pulled the prices. The contract ended the week at US$ 1868 per tonne. It is likely to trade within a range of US$1,860-1,900 per tonne in the coming week.
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As on March 15, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1867 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1868 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1890 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1892 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 2020 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2025 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock decreased to 1182850 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 651475 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 531375 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1908 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange was also on an upward trend this week, buoyed by its LME counterpart. The contract registered the fourth consecutive trading day of increase and touched the highest on March 14 at US$ 2039 per tonne. The price dropped slightly on Friday to US$ 2024 per tonne.
The SHFE 1905 contract continued to regain losses from last week. However, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Thursday that industrial output slowed more than expected in January and February, suggesting a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The contract then dropped to a low of RMB 13,565 per tonne overnight on weaker China’s economic data. The SHFE 1905 contract jumped to an intraday high of RMB 13,725 per tonne after China detailed the tax cut in April. It moderated but remained above all moving average and closed at RMB 13,665 per tonne yesterday.
As social inventories of primary aluminium stemmed increase, and supportive policies like tax cuts bolstered demand, aluminium prices are expected to rebound in the short term. The contract is expected to trade within a higher range.
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