LME aluminium staged a reversal and rallied notably during night trading on Thursday, October 19. The light metal contract rose from the previous close of US$2,106 per tonne on Wednesday, October 18, to close at US$2,128.5 per tonne yesterday. Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium may break a resistance at US$2,161 per tonne, and rise more to the next resistance level at US$2,172 per tonne in the near term. There is a support at US$2,150 per tonne, a break below which could cause a loss to around US$2,136 per tonne.

Shanghai Metals Market predicts that LME aluminium will hover at highs and move within the range of US$2,140-2,165 per tonne on Friday, October 20.

As on October 19, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,128 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,128.50 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,138 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,138.50 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,183 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,188 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium inventory level stands at 1207800 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 969475 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 238325 tonnes.                              

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange has edged higher from US$2,406 per tonne on October 19, to US$2,433 per tonne on October 20.

On Thursday’s night trading, base metals on Shanghai Futures Exchange were split. The most active contract SHFE 1712 aluminium rose reasonably. SMM thinks that price divergence at LME and SHFE will continue over the near term. SHFE 1712 aluminium will range RMB 16,100-16,350 per tonne and challenge the 5-day moving average on Friday, October 20.   

In China’s spot aluminium market, the spot discounts are expected to range at RMB 140-100 per tonne on Friday, SMM said.