China, the dominant producer and exporter of petcoke, is set to witness a drop in its total petcoke export in 2017. Due to the recent environmental pollution control crackdowns in China, the supply of this critical raw material of aluminium, has become tight in the domestic market. However, CPC demand in China is forecast to increase by 852,000 tonnes year-on-year leading to a deficit of 78,000 tonnes in 2017.

Petcoke or petroleum coke is a by-product of the oil refining process, which when subject to calcination (further heat processing) yields calcined petcoke. CPC is a rich source of carbon and is used to produce anode for the electrolytic reduction process of aluminium smelting.

According to reliable industry sources, China exported about 704,264 tonnes of CPC in H1 2016, of which about 98 per cent was delivered to aluminium smelters, equivalent of about 687,108 tonnes, across 15 countries. In H1 2017, CPC export volumes have already contracted.

Going by the global export-import trade data, on the other hands, petcoke exports have risen in H1 2017. The volume totalled around 921,661 tonnes, up from 838,925 tonnes in H1 2016. Quarterly petcoke export trend by China during 2016-2017 (estimated) is shown in the following graph:

The estimated petcoke exports by China in Q3 and Q4 2017 though are shown at higher year-on-year levels, are likely to deviate due to the country’s capacity cut initiatives aimed at curbing pollution caused by carbon-spitting industries. To learn more about the global CPC market along with other aluminium raw materials, read AlCircle Market Insight "Global Aluminium & Raw Material Market with Sectoral Focus on CPC, CTP and Prebaked Anode (2016-17)."

The world-wide primary aluminium production has been growing at a rate of five to six per cent every year. If this growth rate continues the world aluminium production will increase from 59 million tons in 2016 to 68 million tonnes in 2020. With the aluminium growth the requirement for carbon raw materials and products – petroleum coke, calcined petcoke - will grow simultaneously.